氣候變遷之全球暖化導致海平面上升，未來潛在強烈颱風生成機率與強度亦有增加之趨勢，而颱風所引起之風暴潮威脅亦將隨之改變。本研究使用COMCOT風暴潮模式 (COrnel Multi-Grid COupled Tsunami Model – Storm Surge, COMCOT-SS) 計算潛在強烈颱風於海平面上升情境所造成之風暴潮威脅，以及臺灣沿海地區之風暴潮分布與潛勢溢淹範圍。COMCOT-SS模式可計算大尺度遠洋區域，以涵蓋風暴潮傳遞完整週期，同時兼顧近岸尺度之溢淹溯上模擬，並結合TPXO全球天文潮模式作為潮汐邊界，以及可導入中央氣象局發展之TWRF 2.0氣象場與參數化理想風場。
本研究針對中央氣象局定義之第2、3、4、5、6、7、8和9類颱風侵臺路徑，並根據歷史颱風路徑建立強烈颱風案例，模擬不同颱風路徑於海水位抬升10、20、30、40、50及60公分等情境之風暴潮變化。於沿海地區導入高解析度近岸地形，分析海平面上升對臺灣沿岸之風暴潮潮高及其溢淹影響。模擬結果顯示，若颱風只行經台灣東方海域且未登陸台灣本島，則台灣沿岸並無明顯溢淹；而在地勢較低之西部沿海區域，於各海平面情境之潛勢溢淹較為明顯，潛勢溢淹範圍與海水位抬升呈現非線性增長，此外，若颱風為由東向西侵襲台灣，西南部沿岸之潛勢溢淹範圍則隨著海平面上升而逐漸減少。

The global warming of climate change has led to issues of sea-level rising and more frequent typhoons with higher intensity than before. The impacts of this trend may enhance the hazard from storm surge and putting a growing number of people and structures at risk.
In this study, the COMCOT-SS model (COrnel Multi-Grid COupled Tsunami Model – Storm Surge) is used to not only evaluate the threats of storm surges caused by potentially strong typhoons under the impact of climate change but also estimate the potential inundation distribution of Taiwan coastal region. The COMCOT-SS model is capable of fully covering the entire lifespan of a storm surge transmission, from the large-scale oceanic areas to nearshore inundation. It solves non-linear shallow water equations in hydrodynamics with TPXO Global Tidal Solutions as the tidal boundary driver and parametric wind model is applied in this research.
The study is aimed at evaluating the potential inundating area when sea level rises by building scenarios of intense typhoons threatening Taiwan coastal regions under various sea-level condition, of which their path from historical records varied from different categories provided by Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.
The simulation results indicate that if the typhoon track passes through the eastern seas of Taiwan and didn't make landfall, then there’s no significant inundation along the coastal region. On the other hand, the low-lying area on the western coast of Taiwan has more chance to get inundated under all sea-level conditions, yet the relationship between the increasing of inundation area and the sea-level rise is not linear. In addition, if the typhoon track hits Taiwan from east to west, the potential inundation area along the southwestern coast gradually decreases as the sea level rises.

摘要 v
Abstract vi
誌謝 vii
目錄 viii
圖目錄 x
表目錄 xiv
第 1 章、 緒論 1
1.1. 研究背景與動機 1
1.2. 文獻回顧 2
1.2.1. 國內風暴潮研究 2
1.2.2. 國際風暴潮研究 3
1.2.3. 海平面上升 5
1.3. 研究方法 8
第 2 章、 數值模式 9
2.1. COMCOT-SS模式介紹 9
2.2. 巢狀網格設置 10
2.3. 數值潮位計設置 13
第 3 章、 情境設置 15
3.1. 海平面情境 15
3.2. 颱風路徑 28
第 4 章、 強烈颱風案例分析 34
4.1. 颱風案例TyPC02 35
4.2. 颱風案例之東西走向路徑 44
4.3. 颱風案例之南北走向路徑 46
第 5 章、 潛勢溢淹範圍 48
5.1. 颱風路徑案例之潛勢溢淹範圍 49
5.2. 台灣沿海區域之潛勢溢淹範圍 98
第 6 章、 颱風案例TyPC02於海平面上升200公分之情境分析 107
第 7 章、 結論 114
第 8 章、 參考文獻 116
附錄A、 論文口試書面答覆表 120
附錄B、 COMCOT暴潮模式之統御方程式 122
附錄C、 颱風大氣模式 127
附錄D、 強烈颱風案例之風暴潮二維分布圖 129
附錄E、 風場參數測試 189

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